Goldman Sachs Forecast for Dollar Price at End of 2026; Lira on Path to 51

Details of Goldman Sachs' New Forecast for the Turkish Lira Investment bank Goldman Sachs, in its latest report published in July 2026, has updated its estimate for the US Dollar to Turkish Lira (USD/TRY) exchange rate. According to this report, Goldman Sachs analysts expect the dollar rate to reach the 51 to 52 Lira range by the end of 2026 [2]. This forecast comes as the Turkish Lira follows a path known as 'managed depreciation,' influenced by pressures from energy costs and regional geopolitical tensions.

Goldman Sachs had previously announced a 12-month target of 54 Lira for the dollar in May, indicating a continued gradual weakening of the Lira into the first half of 2027 [2]. The bank believes that Turkey's foreign exchange reserves are sufficient to absorb temporary shocks from energy prices, provided that domestic 'dollarization' remains limited.

Impact of Monetary Policies and Interest Rates on the Currency Market One of the main pillars of Goldman Sachs' analysis is the sustainability of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey's (TCMB) tight monetary policy. The bank predicts that Turkey's policy interest rate will remain at 35 percent until the end of 2026 to combat chronic inflation [3]. Analysts at this financial institution believe the central bank will maintain strict credit policies and high interest rates until the end of the year to prevent severe currency volatility [4].

Recent reports mention that although Turkey's economic growth has slowed to approximately 2.9 percent, the primary priority for monetary authorities remains inflation control and maintaining the relative stability of the Lira. Goldman Sachs emphasizes that the difference between domestic and foreign interest rates maintains the attractiveness of the 'carry trade,' though political and economic risks could affect this appeal in the final months of 2026.

Geopolitical Challenges and Energy Prices Ongoing tensions in the Middle East and potential disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz are among the factors Goldman Sachs identified as upside risks for the dollar price in Turkey [3]. Rising oil and energy prices put direct pressure on Turkey's trade balance and increase the demand for foreign currency. However, Goldman Sachs notes that the central bank's current management of the foreign exchange market has prevented sudden and uncontrollable rallies [2].

Alignment with Market Surveys Goldman Sachs' forecast closely aligns with the results of the TCMB's July 2026 market participants survey. In this survey, the average expectation of economic experts for the dollar price at the end of 2026 was announced as approximately 51.55 Lira [1]. This convergence between international institutional forecasts and domestic analysts indicates a relative market consensus regarding the Lira's future path. Accordingly, the Turkish Lira is expected to move toward the 52 Lira mark with a gentle slope and under strict central bank supervision by the end of 2026.