Gulf States Concerned Over US-Iran Deal; Crisis of Confidence in the Region

The signing of the 'Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding' (MOU) on June 17, 2026, aimed at ending recent military conflicts between the United States, Israel, and Iran, has sparked a wave of concern among Washington's traditional allies in the Gulf. The agreement, mediated by Pakistan and Qatar, includes the immediate reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the start of a 60-day negotiation period to reach a final agreement [4]. However, Arab capitals believe this deal may come at the cost of undermining their security.

Marco Rubio's Emergency Trip to Contain the Confidence Crisis Following rising criticism, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio began a regional tour starting in Kuwait to reassure allies that Washington will not ignore their interests [3]. In meetings with Kuwaiti and Emirati officials, Rubio emphasized that the United States would maintain full coordination with its partners in the Gulf Cooperation Council during the 60-day negotiations. However, regional diplomats say that verbal assurances are no longer sufficient to bridge the growing rift [1].

$300 Billion Fund and Fears of Iranian Regional Influence One of the main points of contention is the projected creation of a $300 billion reconstruction fund for Iran mentioned in the MOU [2]. Gulf countries worry that these massive financial resources will be spent on strengthening missile programs and supporting Iranian proxy groups in the region rather than infrastructure reconstruction. According to the media outlet 'Harici,' many analysts believe that excluding the issue of ballistic missiles from this preliminary agreement represents a major retreat by the Trump administration, endangering the security of neighboring countries [1].

Challenges of Strait of Hormuz Control and Maritime Sovereignty The issue of reopening the Strait of Hormuz also faces serious complexities. While Washington emphasizes free and cost-free transit, reports indicate that Iran seeks to establish its monitoring role over this vital waterway and even impose maritime tolls [3]. Energy-exporting countries in the region fear that this agreement officially places control of their economic artery in Tehran's hands. Hasan Al-Hasan, a senior fellow at the IISS, believes this agreement could be a turning point in the regional security order, where Iranian influence is recognized and the US military presence is reduced [1].

Uncertain Outlook for the 60-Day Negotiations While technical talks continue in Switzerland, disputes over International Atomic Energy Agency inspections of sites damaged during the war remain unresolved [4]. Gulf countries are now focusing on strengthening their independent defense capabilities and diversifying international security partners, as they believe the 'Islamabad MOU' signals Washington's desire to gradually exit Middle East crises at any cost [2].