JPMorgan's New Forecast for Dollar Price and Inflation in Turkey (2026)

JPMorgan Revises Turkey's Economic Outlook

In mid-July 2026, the American investment bank JPMorgan updated its comprehensive report on Turkey's macroeconomic situation. Prepared by the bank's senior economist, Fatih Akcelik, the report indicates significant changes in forecasts regarding exchange rates, inflation, and interest rates. According to the report, recent tensions in the Middle East and energy price fluctuations have been the primary drivers of this revision [3].

Forecast for the US Dollar and Turkish Lira

One of the most critical parts of this report is the USD/TRY exchange rate forecast. JPMorgan announced that it expects the Lira's value against the dollar to reach 51.4 Lira by the end of 2026 [1]. The bank also set its long-term outlook for the end of 2027 at 61.7 Lira [2]. At the time of this report's publication, the dollar rate in global markets had crossed the 47 Lira mark, reflecting increasing pressure on Turkey's national currency following regional tensions and concerns over the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz [5].

Inflation and Central Bank Monetary Policies

In the area of inflation, JPMorgan raised its forecast for the end of 2026 from the previous 24% to 29% [4]. The bank believes that although currency fluctuations have been somewhat controlled, inflationary pressures remain at a high level. Consequently, the bank's analysts have advised the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) to be very cautious in cutting interest rates [1]. The interest rate, currently at 37%, is projected to decrease to 35% by the end of 2026 and to 30% by the end of 2027 [2].

Economic Growth and Geopolitical Challenges

International tensions have had a direct impact on economic growth estimates. JPMorgan lowered Turkey's economic growth forecast for 2026 from 4.4% to 3% [3]. Rising oil prices resulting from regional conflicts have not only increased energy costs but also put pressure on Turkey's current account deficit. The current account deficit is expected to reach $48 billion (equivalent to 2.8% of GDP) by the end of 2026 [5]. However, strong tourism revenues during the summer season could partially alleviate the pressure on foreign exchange reserves [2].

Key Signals for Investors

JPMorgan's report emphasizes that wage increases in December and the government's fiscal policies ahead of potential election calendars will be important signals for the inflation trend in 2027 [1]. Investors should note that if high inflation persists, the pace of the Lira's depreciation may accelerate beyond current projections [2].