New Market Forecast for Dollar Rate and Turkey's Inflation at Year-End 2026

The Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (TCMB) has released the results of the Market Participants Survey for June 2026, containing vital data for investors and economic actors. This report, based on the opinions of 68 experts from the financial and real sectors, indicates subtle but significant changes in Turkey's economic outlook for the second half of the current year [1][3].

Fluctuations in Exchange Rate and Inflation Forecasts According to the published data, the market's year-end dollar rate forecast for 2026 has decreased slightly from 51.57 Lira to 51.47 Lira compared to the previous month [2]. However, the market's long-term view on the exchange rate remains bullish; the dollar rate is expected to rise to 55.72 Lira in the next 12 months, showing growth compared to the previous forecast of 54.69 Lira [4].

In the inflation sector, survey participants expect the Consumer Price Index (TÜFE) to reach 29.14% by the end of 2026. This figure has increased from May's forecast of 28.94% [1][5]. This comes as annual inflation reached 32.61% in May 2026, indicating continued price pressures from energy costs and regional tensions in the Middle East [3].

Economic Growth and Current Account The economic growth outlook for Turkey for 2026 has seen a negative adjustment. Market participants have reduced their Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth forecast from 3.3% to 3.2% [3][6]. This decrease reflects the impact of contractionary monetary policies and reduced domestic demand. Additionally, the current account deficit is expected to reach $49.2 billion by the end of the year, up from the previous estimate of $47.8 billion [5].

Monetary Policy and Interest Rates In the area of monetary policy, the market expects the Central Bank of Turkey to keep the policy interest rate (one-week repo) stable at 37% in the short term [4]. However, forecasts for the next 12 months indicate the start of a downward trend in interest rates, reaching 30.14% [1][6]. Analysts believe the Central Bank will refrain from early monetary easing until definitive signs of falling inflation are observed, especially given that the bank's own target inflation for the end of 2026 is 24% [3].

Overall, the June 2026 data shows that the Turkish economy remains on a difficult path to curb inflation and maintain currency stability, while external factors such as oil prices and geopolitical tensions remain primary risks [4].