Turkey Endangers Relations with Iran; Consequences of the NATO Summit in Ankara

Ankara's Historic Hosting and Trump's Return The 36th NATO Summit, held on July 7 and 8, 2026, in Ankara, marks a turning point in Turkey's foreign policy. Recep Tayyip Erdogan's lavish reception of US President Donald Trump, featuring symbolic Janissary units and fighter jet flyovers, signals Ankara's strong desire for a full return to the Western fold [3]. During the meeting, Trump called Erdogan a strong leader and emphasized Turkey's key role in European security. This unprecedented rapprochement comes as NATO approved heavy military commitments in its final communique, including 70 billion euros in aid to Ukraine for 2026 [2].

Noureddin's Warning: Gambling on Relations with Neighbors Professor Mehmet Noureddin, a prominent expert on Turkish affairs, described this new approach as a 'dangerous gamble' in an analysis published by the 'Yakin Dogu Haber' (YDH) news agency [1]. According to Noureddin, Ankara is attempting to advance its domestic goals by fully integrating into NATO strategies, but this move will come at the cost of weakening relations with key neighbors such as Iran and Russia. He believes that Turkey's role as NATO's vanguard in the region increases the risk of new conflicts and jeopardizes the country's long-term stability [1].

End of Ceasefire and Escalation of Military Tensions Simultaneous with these diplomatic developments, military tensions between Iran and the United States have reached their peak. On July 8, Donald Trump officially announced the end of a two-month ceasefire with Iran, which was immediately followed by US airstrikes on positions near the Bushehr nuclear power plant and Khuzestan province [5]. In response, Iranian armed forces targeted US bases in Jordan (Al-Azraq), Kuwait, and Bahrain with ballistic missiles [5]. In this critical situation, Hakan Fidan's phone call with his Iranian counterpart, Abbas Araghchi, indicates last-minute efforts to prevent a full-scale regional war, although analysts doubt the effectiveness of this diplomacy in light of Turkey's new commitments to NATO [3].

Power Realignment in Syria and the Caucasus Another point of friction is the new order in Syria and the Caucasus. Following the fall of the Assad government in late 2024, the new government in Damascus led by Ahmed al-Sharaa has become heavily dependent on Turkish economic and military support, which has effectively eliminated Iran's traditional influence in the Levant [2]. Furthermore, Turkey's insistence on opening the Zangezur Corridor, now renamed the 'Trump Route for Peace and Prosperity' (TRIPP), has put additional pressure on Iran's northwestern borders and shifted the geopolitical balance in favor of the Ankara-Baku axis [4]. These developments, alongside chronic disputes over Aras River water rights, have placed Tehran-Ankara relations in their most complex state in decades.