New Dollar Price Forecast in Turkey; 4-Lira Scenario Changes

Today, Friday, June 26, 2026, the Turkish currency market is witnessing significant developments in medium-term forecasts. The 'Yeni Akit' newspaper announced in an exclusive report that the French banking giant, Societe Generale, has abandoned its previous scenario of a 4-lira increase in the dollar price and has targeted new figures for the end of the current year [1].

Revision of the 50-Lira Scenario Previously, economic analysts believed that the dollar would reach the 50-lira mark with a 4-lira jump from its current level. However, new economic data and the monetary policies of the Central Bank of Turkey have led to a revision of this forecast. According to published reports, Societe Generale now believes that the dollar price fluctuation until the end of 2026 will be within a 2-lira range, and the 50-lira target is no longer a priority [1]. This change in approach indicates relative confidence in inflation control tools in the second half of the year.

Current Market Status on June 26, 2026 In today's trading in the Istanbul free market, the dollar price has stabilized at 46.62 lira [2]. The Euro exchange rate is also fluctuating in the range of 53.09 to 53.16 lira [3]. Relative stability in prices in recent days has provided a space for more optimistic analyses. However, experts believe that the predicted 2-lira fluctuations could occur in the final months of the year as the periods for foreign settlement accounts approach.

Factors Affecting the Change in Forecasts Several key factors have played a role in changing the scenario from '4-lira' to '2-lira'. Firstly, the inflation rate in Turkey shows signs of decreasing towards the 13 to 19 percent range, which has strengthened the position of the lira [1]. Secondly, the contractionary policies of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) and maintaining interest rates at high levels have preserved the attractiveness of the lira for domestic and foreign investors. Analysts believe that if this trend continues, the dollar may fluctuate even less than the new forecasts.

Key Dates for Investors In the Yeni Akit report, specific dates for potential exchange rate changes are mentioned. Investors should closely monitor the upcoming central bank meetings in September and December 2026. Any change in interest rates or policy statements could accelerate or moderate the 2-lira fluctuation targeted by international banks [1][2].