Meriç Köyatası: Warning of Heavy Inflation Despite Dollar Stability

A New Crisis: When Even the Dollar Cannot Stop Inflation

As Turkish financial markets grapple with currency fluctuations in mid-July 2026, prominent economic analyst Meriç Köyatası, in a thought-provoking note in 12punto, pointed to the phenomenon of "dollar inflation." He argues that the current problem of the Turkish economy is not just the devaluation of the Lira, but an increase in the prices of goods and services such that even when converted to dollars, we see irrational growth [1]. This situation indicates that production and living costs in Turkey have exceeded global standards.

Why is Dollar Inflation More Dangerous Than Lira Inflation?

Köyatası believes that when a country faces dollar inflation, it loses its competitive advantage in global markets. According to him, if the price of a meal or the cost of a hotel stay in Turkey, calculated in dollars, is more expensive than in European countries or regional rivals, the tourism and export industries will be severely damaged [2]. Recent reports from Reuters also confirm that the consumer price index in Turkey continued its upward trend in July 2026 despite relative control of the exchange rate, putting additional pressure on the middle class.

Structural Roots of High Prices in 2026

According to Köyatası's analysis, current monetary policies have failed to curb the core of inflation. He notes that "if you experience high inflation even with the dollar, it means your cost structure has collapsed" [1]. This means that wage increases and energy costs have been so rapid that they have neutralized the effect of the national currency's devaluation, making the final price of goods uncompetitive at the global level. Bloomberg also noted in a recent report that Istanbul has now become one of the most expensive cities in the region for expatriates and tourists [3].

Future Outlook and the Need for Urgent Reforms

In conclusion, the economic expert emphasizes that the government and the central bank must look beyond managing the exchange rate and think about reducing production costs and structural reforms. Without curbing inflation at the level of basic goods, even dollar rate stability cannot prevent a livelihood crisis. Köyatası warns that the continuation of this situation in the coming months of 2026 could lead to a deeper stagflation that will take years to exit [1][2].