End of H1 2026: Where Did the Turkish Lira Stand Against the Dollar and Euro?

Today, June 30, 2026, Turkey's financial markets welcome the end of the first half of the year as foreign exchange rates remain the focus of investors and citizens. According to reports published by reputable sources such as "Haber Ekspres" and "Bloomberg HT," the Turkish Lira is following a path of "managed depreciation" influenced by a combination of domestic monetary policies and regional geopolitical pressures [1][5].

Current Exchange Rate Status in the Open Market In the latest transactions of the day, the US Dollar exchange rate against the Turkish Lira (USD/TRY) has stabilized at the 46.66 level. This figure represents a 17.25% depreciation of the Lira over the past 12 months [2]. Meanwhile, the Euro is trading at 53.21 Lira, reflecting continuous pressure on Turkey's currency basket in the face of high energy costs [1]. Analysts believe that the Turkish Lira lost approximately 1.66% of its value in June, but unlike previous years, this trend has occurred gradually and under the supervision of the Central Bank [2].

Central Bank Policies and Interest Rates The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT), headed by Fatih Karahan, kept the bank interest rate steady at 37% in its latest Monetary Policy Committee meeting in June 2026 [3]. This decision, taken for the third consecutive period, demonstrates the Central Bank's determination to maintain a contractionary approach until price stability is achieved. Reports indicate that annual inflation reached approximately 32.6% in May 2026, which is a decrease from its peak in previous years but remains higher than the set targets [3]. Additionally, by conducting deposit auctions with a rate of 40.13% for medium-term maturities, the Central Bank has sent a strong signal to the market that high rates will remain for a long time [4].

Geopolitical Factors and the Outlook for the Second Half of the Year One of the main reasons for recent fluctuations and the persistence of inflation in Turkey is the tensions in the Middle East and their impact on global energy prices. Regional conflicts have increased fuel import costs for Turkey and put pressure on the trade balance [3]. However, economic experts at "Ünlü & Co" predict that if the disinflation process accelerates in the second half of 2026, the Central Bank may gradually reduce the interest rate toward 30% [4]. Consensus forecasts for the end of 2026 estimate the Dollar rate in the range of 48 to 51 Lira, indicating a continued mild weakening of the Lira in the coming months [2].