Summary of Turkey's Financial Markets; Stock Market Rise and Lira Volatility at Week's End

Borsa Istanbul Rises Amid Political Optimism

At the close of trading on Friday, June 12, 2026, the main index of Borsa Istanbul (BIST 100) closed at 13,938.48 points, an increase of 194.98 points [1]. This growth, representing a 1.42% daily return, occurred as the market approached the 14,125 level at its daily peak. Trading volume reached 229.3 billion lira on this day, indicating high investor dynamism ahead of the weekend [1]. Analysts believe that the reduction of geopolitical tensions in the region and news regarding potential agreements in the Strait of Hormuz have been the primary drivers of this ascent [4].

Currency and Gold Market Status; Lira Against the Dollar

In the foreign exchange market, the USD/TRY exchange rate reached 46.26 at the end of the week [2]. The Turkish Lira, which has been under a managed depreciation policy since the beginning of 2026, continued its gradual downward trend in June. Meanwhile, the price of gold per gram in the Istanbul market rose slightly to 6,268 lira, while the global price of gold per ounce stabilized around $4,221 [1][2]. Reduced risk aversion in global markets due to the possibility of peace in the Middle East has somewhat eased buying pressure on gold, but domestic inflation continues to keep demand for precious metals high in Turkey.

New Inflation Forecasts from the Central Bank of Turkey

The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (TCMB), in its latest survey of market participants published on June 12, 2026, announced that inflation expectations for the end of the current year have increased. According to this report, the year-end inflation forecast rose from 28.94% to 29.14% [3]. Furthermore, economic participants expect the dollar rate to reach the 51.47 lira mark by the end of 2026 [3]. This comes as the annual inflation rate in May 2026 recorded 32.61%, highlighting the difficult path for the government's economic team to curb prices [5].

Global Drivers; From the Hormuz Agreement to the SpaceX Giant

International markets witnessed two major events this week that cast a shadow over the Turkish market. First, reports of the United States and Iran nearing a temporary ceasefire agreement to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which led to a decrease in Brent oil prices to $86.98 [4]. The second event was the initial public offering (IPO) of SpaceX on global exchanges, recognized as the largest IPO in history, which created a wave of risk appetite among traders [4]. These factors combined allowed Borsa Istanbul to end the week in the green despite inflationary pressures.