New Predictions from Major Banks for Dollar Price; Lira on the Path to 50?

As we approach the end of the first half of 2026, volatility in the Turkish currency market has once again attracted the attention of international investors. According to reports published by local media, including "Eskişehir Haber," one of the world's largest investment banks has updated its forecast for the dollar-to-lira exchange rate (USD/TRY) for the coming months [1]. These reports indicate continued pressure on Turkey's national currency despite the central bank's contractionary policies.

Goldman Sachs Forecast and New Price Targets In its latest analysis, Goldman Sachs announced that it expects the dollar rate against the lira to reach the 48 lira mark by the end of July 2026 [3]. The bank believes that structural pressures resulting from the difference between domestic and global inflation rates, alongside high energy costs, will remain the main drivers of the lira's depreciation. Furthermore, some algorithmic models predict that if the current trend continues, the dollar rate could exceed the 51 lira level by the end of 2026 [2].

Central Bank Policies and Market Reaction The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (TCMB), in its recent meeting on June 11, 2026, decided to keep the policy interest rate steady at 37 percent [4]. Fatih Karahan, the Governor of the Central Bank, emphasized that the tight monetary stance will be maintained until there is a significant reduction in inflation. However, a survey of market participants in late June shows that inflation expectations remain high, with most respondents predicting the dollar rate will reach approximately 51.46 lira by the end of 2026 [2].

Analysis by Barclays and Other International Institutions Alongside Goldman Sachs, Barclays also examined the situation of the lira in its recent report. Analysts at this bank believe that the reduction of regional tensions and the drop in oil prices could somewhat slow the pace of the lira's depreciation, but they still expect the Central Bank of Turkey to begin a cycle of interest rate cuts starting in September 2026 [1]. This potential policy shift could increase selling pressure on the lira in the final quarter of the year. On the other hand, ING has also stabilized its year-end target for the dollar at the 51 lira level, indicating a relative consensus among major banks regarding the gradual weakening of the lira [2].

Outlook for the Second Half of 2026 Economic experts believe that the path of the dollar against the lira in the coming months depends heavily on inflation data from July and August. If the disinflation process does not proceed as planned, major banks may revise their price targets toward levels higher than 54 lira [3]. Currently, markets are reacting cautiously to the new forecasts, and investors are waiting for further signals from the government's economic team to determine the more precise direction of the exchange rate in the second half of 2026.