With the release of a new ING Bank report in July 2026, analysts are signaling a major shift in the dollar's trajectory. The Dutch bank, examining geopolitical variables and Federal Reserve policies, has outlined a different outlook for the end of the year.
Paradigm Shift in ING Bank's Currency Forecasts
While global markets navigated the first half of 2026 with high volatility, the latest report from ING Bank indicates a strategic pivot in currency forecasts. According to analysis published on July 10, 2026, the financial institution believes the dollar's direction is changing, and we will likely see a gradual weakening of the currency against other major peers by the end of this calendar year [1].
ING experts believe that after a prolonged period of dollar strength, factors such as the stabilization of interest rates in the United States and the easing of geopolitical tensions in certain regions have increased pressure on the dollar index. The bank predicts that the dollar will face a limited but continuous decline in value during the second half of 2026, which could provide new opportunities for emerging markets [5].
The State of the Turkish Lira and the EUR/USD Pair
A key section of the ING report focuses on the Turkish Lira (TRY) exchange rate. Despite the Turkish Central Bank's efforts to stabilize the economy, ING predicts that the Lira will remain under pressure. Based on the bank's data, the USD/TRY rate, currently around 46.90, is expected to reach 51.00 by the end of 2026 [3]. This indicates a continuation of the depreciation trend for Turkey's national currency against the dollar, albeit at a milder slope than in previous years.
In contrast, the situation for the Euro is described differently. ING analysts forecast that the Euro/Dollar pair (EUR/USD) will end 2026 at the 1.18 level [2]. This prediction implies a strengthening of the Euro against the dollar, primarily driven by expectations of returning economic growth to the Eurozone and the potential narrowing of the interest rate gap between the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve [4].
Impact of Oil Prices and Geopolitical Variables
In its report, ING Bank also noted a decline in Brent oil prices. With energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz normalizing faster than expected, the bank has lowered its oil price forecast for the fourth quarter of 2026 to $74 [2]. Lower energy prices could act as a catalyst for reducing global inflation, allowing the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates in the current range (3.50% to 3.75%) until the summer of 2027 [5].
However, it is warned that any renewed tension between the United States and Iran could disrupt these calculations, causing a sudden spike in oil prices and a return of demand for the dollar as a safe-haven asset. Currently, markets are experiencing a form of "headline fatigue," shifting their primary focus from military tensions toward economic data and interest rate differentials [4].
Conclusion for Investors
The shift in direction predicted by ING suggests that strategies based on a strong dollar may need revision in the coming months. Given that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to change interest rates until 2027, carry trades in high-yield currencies may become attractive again, provided political stability is maintained in those countries [2]. Investors should closely monitor U.S. inflation trends and Middle East developments, as these two factors will be the final determinants of the dollar's direction at the end of 2026.
ING analysts believe the direction of the dollar in global markets is changing.
linkSources
- Dolarda yön değişiyor: ING’den yıl sonu için dikkat çeken tahmin — İmece Gazetesi (2026-07-10)
- ING'den petrol ve dolar tahmini — Bloomberg HT (2026-07-09)
- ING signals ongoing struggles for Turkish Lira against dollar through 2026 — Trend News Agency (2026-01-10)
- US Dollar: Geopolitics faded as markets eye rates – ING — FXStreet (2026-07-10)
